Deaths Could Outnumber Births In 10 Years: Singapore PMO

In yet another instance of shrinking birth rates, Singapore after the United Kingdom and Japan, raised concern over its falling population levels, expected to further decline without immigration in about 10 years resulting in a ‘demographic time bomb.’

An official in the Prime Minister’s Office, Indranee Rajah said on September 9 during a parliamentary session, “Based on current trends, the number of citizen deaths could exceed the number of citizen births in the first half of the 2030s.” The announcement comes after the resident total fertility in Singapore dropped below 1.0 for the first time ever, in 2023.

If the current trend of population decline continues in Singapore it will have repercussions on the size of the state’s workforce and economic dynamism. This is as spending on the ageing population will increase whereas the tax base will shrink further. Workers for high-skilled jobs will also decline due to a shortage of labour force. The negative effects of a declining population will involve a rise in inflation as a certain group will consume more goods and services.

The Strait Times reported 24,726 citizen deaths in Singapore in 2023, a number which is much higher than 2014 which reported 17,691, 40% less than 2024 levels.

In a double whammy for Singapore, as citizen deaths increased, the birth rate fell simultaneously by 13% in the same period. According to government data, there were 28,877 births in 2023 and 33,193 in 2014. The statistics indicate the rapid speed at which the difference between death and birth rate is growing which is worrisome. This is the fourth consecutive year that Singapore’s birth rate decreasing.

Gradually ageing population is also growing massively in the island nation as per data shared by the National Population and Talent Division claiming that persons above age 65 will significantly increase in comparison to the younger population. 19.1% of the citizen population in 2023 are those who are 65 and above age. This number is projected to increase to 24.1% by 2030. In contrast, citizens aged 19 and below were at 19.9% last year but are estimated to reduce to 19.3% by 2030.

Remember babies in Singapore automatically get citizenship at birth. For context, Citizen births refer to those of babies who have at least one Singaporean parent.